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Chapter 2 · 2025

UltraHorizon: Benchmarking Agent Capabilities in Ultra Long-Horizon Scenarios

Haotian Luo, Huaisong Zhang, Xuelin Zhang

Abstract

Autonomous agents have recently achieved remarkable progress across diverse domains, yet most evaluations focus on short-horizon, fully observable tasks. In contrast, many critical real-world tasks, such as large-scale software development, commercial investment, and scientific discovery, unfold in long-horizon and partially observable scenarios where success hinges on sustained reasoning, planning, memory management, and tool use. Existing benchmarks rarely capture these long-horizon challenges, leaving a gap in systematic evaluation. To bridge this gap, we introduce UltraHorizon a novel benchmark that measures the foundational capabilities essential for complex real-world challenges. We use exploration as a unifying task across three distinct environments to validate these core competencies. Agents are designed in long-horizon discovery tasks where they must iteratively uncover hidden rules through sustained reasoning, planning, memory and tools management, and interaction with environments. Under the heaviest scale setting, trajectories average 200k+ tokens and 400+ tool calls, whereas in standard configurations they still exceed 35k tokens and involve more than 60 tool calls on average. Our extensive experiments reveal that LLM-agents consistently underperform in these settings, whereas human participants achieve higher scores, underscoring a persistent gap in agents' long-horizon abilities. We also observe that simple scaling fails in our task. To better illustrate the failure of agents, we conduct an in-depth analysis of collected trajectories. We identify eight types of errors and attribute them to two primary causes: in-context locking and functional fundamental capability gaps. Our code will be available here.

Eigenvector Insight — Zone III / PASF-PADE AnalysisNot part of the original paper
Eigenvector Research — Marco van Hurne
How this paper contributes to solving the Zone III problem (PASF-PADE)

This paper directly addresses one of the core structural challenges in Zone III deployments. The research on LLM agents, long-horizon scenarios, benchmarking provides evidence-based foundations that enterprise architects cannot ignore when designing long-horizon autonomous workflows. The findings challenge the assumption that a base language model — however capable — can handle the complexity of durable, governed, multi-step execution without explicit architectural intervention. For Zone III practitioners, this paper belongs in the required reading list.

Why AI is not sufficient for Zone III without this

Zone III refers to high-complexity, high-risk, long-running agentic workflows — the class of enterprise AI deployments where a single failure can cascade across hundreds of steps. Standard AI models, trained to predict the next token, are not inherently designed for durable, governed, multi-step execution. This paper addresses one or more of the structural gaps that make Zone III deployments unsafe without explicit architectural intervention.

Topics

LLM agentslong-horizon scenariosbenchmarkingreasoningplanningmemory managementtool use